The following analysis was written by Alejandro Zambrano, ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist.
On the first Friday of the month, the US Non-farm payrolls tend to get all the focus, and few traders focus on the Canadian labour market report that is usually released on the same day, and at the same time.
The reason why I prefer the Canadian labor market figures is because traders tend to act more rational on the figure release by selling the Canadian dollar on a bad report and buy it on a good outcome. The US NFP, on the other hand, tends to trade irrationally with big swings to the upside and the downside in the first hours of the report, making it easy to lose money.
The next Canadian labor market report will, however, not publish this Friday. Instead, it is due to be published on Thursday, April 9, at 13:30, as Friday is a bank holiday in Canada.
Market Expectations
The current estimates are for the Canadian unemployment to remain unchanged at 5.6%. The unemployment rate has been around the same level since September, and I think it is unlikely that the figure will remain around the same level because of the Coronavirus crisis. On the coronavirus front, the spread of cases in Canada increased by about 20.5% per day from March 21 to March 31 for a total of 8161 cases on March 31. The growth rate is similar to what we have seen in the rest of the world.
