Following last week’s financial talks, the Bank of England has raised interest rates by 25bp and concluded that interest rates for 2023 will remain higher for longer, with increases expected to seep into H1 of 2024. Although this increase marks the 13th consecutive interest rate spike since December 2021, market experts believe that the Bank of England’s move is supportive of the British Pound in the long term.
BoE: interest rates outlook to increase for 2023 and 2024
Analysts from Bank of America predict that the Bank of England will hike interest rates again in September due to the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) June 2023 vote, which set new policy to meet the 2% inflation target by the end of 2023: a target which hopes to curb unemployment and economic decline.
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Andrew Bailey Source: Bank of England
After last week’s press release, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated:
We know inflation hits the least wealthy citizens, and we need to be sure that it comes down consistently to reach the 2% target.
Although a consistent decrease in inflation is paramount for economic recovery, UK Economist at Bank of America, Mark Wood, suggests that the interest rate expectations curve reveals the market will now accept higher rates in 2024, particularly in Q2 of next year.
Dominic Bunning, Head of European FX Research at HSBC, also noted a change in inflation outlook for the next 2 years. Bunning stated:
The Bank of England’s forecasts for inflation for 2025 increased compared to May’s monetary policy report despite the new forecasts being predicated on higher rates than those used in May’s projections.
