We are looking to take a counter-trend trade in EURUSD this morning. Please note that European Central Bank head Mario Draghi speaks this afternoon Monthly: The move lower has been mixed and volatile, common in corrective sequences. We have seen a prolonged period of consolidation. Not a lot to take away from this timeframe; bearish…

BackgroundYesterday's bearish bias was confirmed as EURBGP moved deeper below the 13 Day Moving Average, with selling pressure steady throughout the day. With immediate studies being negative we are expecting any bounce to be temporary and for the downside to develop.Management and risk descriptionA move through 0.8393 means the stop can be lowered to break…

Schizophrenia is a disorder of the mind characterised by hallucinations and delusions. This is, in my personal view, not too harsh a term to apply to the euro. After all, it is a currency whose DNA was created in an economic experiment that sought to weld 19 diverse economies together under the rule of the…

BackgroundAUDUSD has been travelling lower since it topped out in March and has now broken another important level at 0.7388, suggesting we can head back to the January lows. We can sell a rally to take advantage of this as 0.7377-88 looks like it will cap any recovery.Management and risk descriptionWe will iniitally risk 40…

BackgroundMonday saw strong upside in USDCHF. Friday's minor upside was not only continued, but accelerated with gains of more than a big figure. This fresh demand took the currency pair aggressively through the 13 day and 200 day moving average area, and to the most positive levels traded for three weeks. The speed and scope…

BackgroundUSDJPY continues to trade in line with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond and that market has found its feet after large short positions were squeezed out. The way is now clear for yields to move higher, if the “hard” economic data starts matching “soft” (survey results) data. The main data points due…

The short and long-term bias are now bearish after sellers re-emerged on Friday. Here is the outlook and the prime short entry level for Monday. Monthly: We are holding onto the slightly disjointed bearish Gartley formation. The next downside long-term support and an area that has been pivotal is 1.2000 (bearish). Weekly: For the last…

BackgroundShares in Danish insulin producer Novo Nordisk are up 7% today as the company's first-quarter results beat revenue and net income estimates and it lifted the lower end of its previous full-year guidance. The big question is whether this is a signal to get on the bandwagon of Novo Nordisk. While the result was definitely…

Background Since leaving the gap open at 99.88 from Friday, April 21 after the initial results from the French preliminaries, the USD index has consolidated within a channel formation. This would suggest a possible flag with a bias to break lower. However, gaps also have a tendency to be closed, so signals are far from…

Background Yesterday's indecisive neutral bias proved correct as for the second day in a row, prices were contained within Friday's parameters. But crucially, yesterday's higher lows were firmly rejected and the market closed near the top of modest net gains on the day. This price action does not create strong signals for sentiment but although…