Background The main event on the calendar today is the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s monetary policy review meeting. There is only a 5% chance of any movement in the policy rate so attention will focus on the short post-meeting statement. Little change to the previous outlook is expected, although, on balance, the data…
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The upside for EURUSD stalled, and reversed, on Thursday marginally short of this week's top. Net losses were posted for a second day in a row. The decline was modest though. Based at the same levels as the two previous days, EURUSD remains above its 200 day moving average and near the top of the…
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Yesterday's bullish call, as published on these pages, was modestly successful in dull trading. A late spike higher yielded our first daily and weekly objective, although this was still short of Monday's Asian high and it was not maintained. Overall there was only minor movement in Cable and so signals for sentiment going into Thursday…
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BackgroundThe small caps are lagging in performance (5% year-to-date vs. 6.25% on the S&P500) behind their multinational brethren but don't discount them yet. Smaller companies with capitalization of $2-10 billion, are often considered as the growth engine in the US economy as they are fairly young with great growth potential. A potential corporate tax cut from…
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Using basic charts patterns and correlation, GBPJPY looks set for a correction to the downside this morning. Monthly: The last 117 months of price action has formed a descending triangle formation that has a bias to eventually break lower. The Hammer base from October 2016 offers an immediate upside bias. Last month’s lack of clear…
Read moreWe exited a long vertical call spread in natural gas on Tuesday due to April expiration of the options and the underlying futures. This indeed is a reminder that options are indeed a decaying asset that one needs to be aware of at all times. Nevertheless, we are seeing renewed interest with the new active…
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Background Gold has spent a week or so retracing since topping at $1,297.4/oz on April 17. Yesterday was a good day for the bears as we saw selling from $1,279.9 to $1,262.8, posting a red candle with Marabuzo resistance at $1,271.7, which is also an intra-day reference. We have $1,261.1 and $1,256.6/oz cited as important…
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Background Wall Street got excited yesterday as fast-food group McDonald's delivered first-quarter results that were better than expected. Q1 revenue was $5.68 billion, beating analysts' average estimate of $5.53 billion, and EPS was $1.47, above a market expectation of $1.34. But investors were most satisfied with Q1 global comparable sales growth of 4% year-on-year, which…
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Background With the US intending to impose a 20% duty on Canadian softwood lumber imports, the Canadian dollar was under pressure yesterday. This week, Friday is the “big numbers” day, with the scheduled release of US durable goods orders, as well as the ECB interest-rate decision and monetary policy statement. Management and risk description USDCAD’s…
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Background The long-term outlook for the cross remains to the downside but we look for a higher correction intraday. This has resulted in another two-way play this week Monthly – Over the long term, we are looking for a move back to the reverse trend line support at 0.7975. For the last 5 months, we…
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