Bitcoin continues to amaze of late, rising more than 40% in the past month. It rose more than 15% over the past weekend, astounding even the most enthusiastic of supporters, bounding over $8,100 and dancing about, as the bulls remain in control of this market. Analysts can point to one or two or maybe even three valid fundamental reasons for the sudden surge, but the rise has been nothing short of meteoric, not at all what was expected. Without a common narrative to explain the current pricing behavior, no one quite knows what could possibly happen next.
Reasons and theories have been proffered in masse, but the proliferation of so many logical causes suggests that the analyst community is purely guessing at this stage. If several stars are lining up at the same time, then, perhaps, the shear number of valid causes may be producing a similar price behavior as happened in 2017 when “FOMO” mania infected the speculating crowd that crawled over one another to drive Bitcoin into an asymptotic slope that was totally unsustainable. The current gradual rise over the past four months, however, would seem to negate this proposition, thereby signifying that the accumulation phase is over. Bulls are now on the run.
At confusing times like these, the best course of action may be to review each of the so-called “guesses” that are streaming across Twitter and other social media platforms at present:
- Whales on the move: Researchers that follow activity in large balanced account addresses, i.e., “Whales”, reported enormous activity over the weekend: “Bitcoin whales have traded around 100,000 bitcoin over the weekend, with a total value of some $670 million dollars.”
- Fidelity to “Go Live” in weeks: Fidelity Investments is ramping up its crypto trading offering, complete with custodial security and regulatory compliant standards, and is expected to launch “within weeks”. Expect a gradual process, but over 30 million customers could soon hit the market;
- TD Ameritrade and E*Trade coming: Not to be outdone, these two popular trading platforms could unleash a few million more avid traders into Crypto-Land in short order;
- Bakkt exchange ready to go: The latest news is that back office technicalities have been worked out, and the Bakkt crypto exchange will soon be offering Bitcoin futures that settle in-kind for daily and monthly contracts, including custody service, in the June or July timeframe;
- Facebook moving forward: Latest news is that the social media giant may have more than just cross-border payments in mind. The firm is seeking major support from Silicon Valley investment firms, while expanding its London office and recruiting more blockchain developers. Such activity may signal a larger plan than previously expected, all good for public awareness of all things crypto;
- Retail giants to accept Bitcoin: New major brand names keep popping up in the news, expressing a desire to accept BTC at retail locations again. Names such as eBay, Lowe’s, Amazon’s Whole Foods, Nordstrom, and Gamestop are just a few notables.
There are one half a dozen good, logic-based ideas for you. There are more, and, as you might expect, the cynics have also chimed in for fun. Bitcoin basher, David Gerard of the UK, felt it necessary to share his best thought of the day. It seems that two dwarf planets have crossed through the path of Libra, and, according to David, when this happens, “it lowers the inhibitions of cryptocurrency speculators, thus resulting in the recent Bitcoin price surge.” As cynical as Gerard can be, he does have a sense of humor. He also quipped: “Keep an eye out next month when Quaoar and Sedna pass through Gemini.”
There is one other event to mention. The crypto community will be out in force for its biggest event of the year this week — Blockchain Week NYC and CoinDesk’s Consensus 2019 event. Just a few of the headliner’s that will be speaking include FedEx’s Fred Smith, Fidelity’s Abigail Johnson, Twitter and Square’s Jack Dorsey, chairman of the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission, Jay Clayton, and U.S. presidential hopeful, Andrew Yang.
As Simon Peters, an analyst at brokerage eToro, points out:
As crypto’s true believers gather in New York for Consensus this week, they are counting ever-more household-name companies amongst their number. The possibility of big crypto-related announcements from some of the world’s biggest corporates will be part of what is driving bitcoin’s price upward.
Peters goes on to add:
This buzz follows a recent spate of good news for bitcoin, with large institutional investors like Fidelity Investments increasing their exposure to crypto-assets in recent weeks. If we see institutions begin to pump serious money into the market, we could be at the start of a very long bull run for crypto-assets.