It is the season to pack away your warm clothing and bring out your lighter fare for the warming months ahead. It may also be the season to put away heavy “bear” suits and elect to wear whatever a “bull” would wear when prancing around Crypto-Land. It is said that a leopard cannot change its spots, but several analysts that have been critical of cryptos in the past have suddenly gotten caught up in the enthusiasm of the moment and shifted their allegiances, almost overnight.
One well-respected analyst that has recently revealed his “chameleon-nesque” nature is Murad Mahmudov, a Princeton graduate turned diehard crypto trader and now a founding partner at up-and-coming crypto fund Adaptive Capital. He is known for his overly complex analyses and use of obscure technical constructs to support his various theses. He has gained celebrity status, however, from being right multiple times over on occasion. Per one follower:
The trader recently confirmed that a long-term downtrend line for the aggregate value of all cryptocurrencies was hit for the eighth time in a row.
He has divided the Bitcoin pricing history from 2011 forward into four distinct cycles and overlaid 300 and 400-Day moving averages, not to mention 89-Week versions, as well. While most of us are accustomed to using a “Relative Strength Index” (RSI) to determine overbought and oversold conditions, Murad goes one step forward by using a Stochastic derivative of the standard RSI model for more confirmation of his more compelling observations of patterns in the market.
Last January, Mahmudov called forth his consummate skills and produced an annotated chart, the likes of which had never been seen before. His rather complicated technical machinations bore a bearish forecast that was chilling. Per his note attached:
Final Bottom “Steady” Support will be found at MA300 [With a wick down to MA350 – 400] [My Prediction]. In other words: A wick down to 1700 – 1850 area to quickly return and settle in the 2200 – 2400 area. I believe bottom will form between MA300 & MA400 due to past patterns & how particularly overstretched the 2017 bubble was.
The 1700 region never came to be. Post January, Bitcoin took off, as if powered by a new form of rocket fuel, blasting above $5,000 and challenging $6,000 at present. From February through April, BTC recorded three months of positive gains, a far cry from the cold blasts delivered by Crypto Winter. Mahmudov quickly shifted gears and joined the ranks of analysts that were proclaiming that a bottom had formed in late December, at least he is 75% sure, as he explained on a recent YouTube episode. There is now no need to waste time contemplating bottoms for Bitcoin anymore.
Mahmudov is now back, and his latest Twitter feed suggests that “bullish times” are ahead, but with one major caveat. Here is his latest missive:
My list of 20 reasons why I think that if 5450-5550 area holds — its very bullish & megamoonsoon is still on the table: I repeat, IF, 5450-5550 area holds, THEN, it’s quite bullish.
While many of his 20 reasons are out on the edge, so to speak, here are four that can ring true for any of the analysts among us:
- “Bitcoin is currently trading in the midst of an ascending channel, marked by consistent higher lowers and higher highs. With BTC continuing to hold this pattern with an impeccability, a move higher to potentially break out of the upper bound of the channel seems likely.”
- “The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the traditional RSI are both showing bullish signs, both accentuating that the crypto market isn’t overextended and thus has room to run.”
- “BTC is currently trading above key moving averages, like the 50-week simple moving average and 89-week exponential moving average, which caught multiple local bottom and top areas in both previous and current cycles.”
- “Lastly, there has been an unprecedented rally in the amount of BTC in short contracts, resulting in postulation that a massive short squeeze may soon be inbound.”
Is Murad Mahmudov onto something? He could be right on, or, as in last January, on the wrong side of the equation. He has obviously turned quite “bullish”, but those that know him personally have often said that he is actually a bull at heart. The cynical path is never fun, and the potential for good times ahead does make for more exciting times.