The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Martin Lam, ATFX
The US non-farm payroll population reported 157,000 in July, a sharp drop from the previous month’s 213,000 and the expected 190,000. The data disappointed the market and caused the dollar to fall. Fortunately, the US unemployment rate fell back to 3.9%, the average wage was in line with expectations, and the dollar investment sentiment returned. At the beginning of this week, there was no important US data released. It is expected that the market focus will shift to other countries’ economic data at the beginning of the week, and their performance will be observed.
The strength of the US dollar is due to the global market’s attention to the US employment data and trade accounts results for July. However, with the non-farm payroll and average wages in the United States in July, only in line with market expectations, the trade account has not changed much, which has made the dollar stronger. The US dollar may adjust at the beginning of the week, US dollar could be adjusted, it could supported other currencies against dollar and gold may rebound, but oil prices have the opportunity to adjust to the decline.
Today’s suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1555/1.1540 support
1.1595/1.1610 resistance
The US non-farm payrolls data showed disappointing market and recorded a three-month decline. If the lack of other bullish dollar factors is added, the strength of the dollar may ease. The market expects the performance of economic data in Germany and the Eurozone in the afternoon to be concerned. If the performance is improved, it is expected to positive to EURUSD.
GBPUSD
1.2985/1.2970 support
1.3035/1.3050 resistance
The US job data showed disappointing market, and the non farm payroll recorded a three-month decline for the third consecutive month. The strength of the US dollar may temporarily slow down, allowing the pound to increase its chances of rising. If the economic data of Germany and the Eurozone progress in the afternoon, it is expected that the Europe will indirectly boost the pound. The market is also concerned about the UK housing price index tomorrow. If the market optimism rises, it is expected to challenge the key resistance of 1.3050.
USDCHF
0.9950/0.9970 resistance
0.9925/0.9905 support
This week, led by European data, the Swiss franc will develop with EURUSD. As the US non-farm payrolls data disappointed the market and recorded a three-month decline, the dollar’s strength may temporarily slow down, the dollar fell, and the Swiss franc was bullish. Technically, USDCHF is likely to fall further, challenging the 0.9900 or 0.9880 below.
USD/JPY
111.05/110.90 support
111.45/111.60 resistance
The US and Japan spreads have not widened, and the yen has taken the opportunity to rebound. This week, Japan released a lot of important data. According to Japan’s second-quarter GDP annual rate data, the market predicts that Japan’s second-quarter GDP will get rid of negative growth in the past two quarters, leading to positive growth. If Japan’s GDP is released before the other data performance can beat market expectations, it will help the yen maintain its recent strength. Technically, the dollar has remained below 111.45 against the yen for a short period of time, and the target below still has a chance to challenge 110.75. But at the same time, we must pay attention to the changes in the US Dow and Japan’s Nikkei, affecting the yen’s trend.
AUDUSD
0.7385/0.7375 support
0.7410/0.7420 resistance
The US non-farm payrolls in July made the market disappointing, while US inflation expectations cooled, and AUDUSD got a chance to rebound. In addition, Australia will announce the construction industry and consumer confidence index respectively, as well as the Australian Reserve Bank’s interest rate in the market. Although the market has not expected interest rate and policy changes, it must pay attention to the contents of the statement after the central bank’s interest rate decision, or affect the trend of AUDUSD.
NZDUSD
0.6745/0.6760 resistance
0.6715/0.6690 support
The US non-farm payrolls in July made the market disappointing, while US inflation expectations cooled, and NZDUSD got a chance to rebound. In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Thursday will have interest rates decision. Although the market has not expected changes in monetary policy, it must pay attention to the contents of the statements after the central banks have decided on interest rates for future, which will affect the future trend of New Zealand dollar. It is expected that the short-term New Zealand central bank will continue to positive.
USD/CAD
1.3025/1.3045 resistance
1.2975/1.2960 support
The rebound in oil prices is expected to benefit the Canadian dollar. Coupled with the disappointment of non-farm payroll in the United States in July, the short-term trend of the US dollar weakened and there is a chance to further positive for the Canadian dollar. But we must pay attention to the change in oil prices at any time. If it falls, it will be negative for the Canadian dollar.
EURGBP
0.8885/0.8870 support
0.8910/0.8920 resistance
The US job market report disappointed the market. It is expected that EURUSD will benefit from further expansion. The bullish euro against the pound is recommended to focus on 0.8885 support and 0.8920 resistance volatility, while paying attention to risk management to stop loss protection and waiting for the technical rebound of the euro against the pound.
EURCHF
1.1490/1.1480 support
1.1515/1.1530 resistance
EURCHF test the double bottom failed, but the technical oscillation indicator showed a serious divergence. Waiting for the 6925 / 6670 rebound.
XAUUSD
1215/1212 support
1220/1223 resistance
The number of US non-farm payroll fell for three consecutive months in July, the dollar seems fell continued, and gold and silver prices rebounded respectively. It is expected that there will be no important data released in the short-term US, and the price of gold will continue to increase. Special attention to gold, if the breakthrough of US1224, the trend has the opportunity to challenge the resistance of US1230 and US1233.
US crude oil futures:
69.30/69.65 resistance
68.05/67.85 support
Iran’s sanctions have led to a decline in crude oil supply, which continues to stimulate oil prices to rebound. However, the continued slowdown in the US job market may hinder the development of oil prices. Pay close attention to the oil price of US69.30 and US69.65 resistance. If the breakthrough fails, adjustments may occur.
BTCUSD:
7205 / 7485 resistance
6925 / 6670 support
During the weekend, the Bitcoin gap down reach US6936. The trend seems downward. By technically, the price under US7205 and US7485 resistance that could reach further lower. Close support US6925 and US6670. If break, next important support as US6025.
The above is for reference only; the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Trading must included risk management! Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.