The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Martin Lam, ATFX
US GDP initial value in the second quarter reached 4.1%. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in July was also higher than expected at 97.9%. However, the market believes that the earlier US tax cuts and exporters’ efforts to avoid China’s anti-tariff policy and speed up exports, there are not driven by the actual US economy. Therefore, the US dollar is still in place, or it can be stimulated by more economic data prove and the Fed’s statement remarks.
This week is also a super week. The market is concerned about the Bank of Japan meeting on Tuesday, and the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England on Thursday. In addition, the US July non-farm payroll and another job market report, such the update average hourly wage figures were released on Friday. On the eve of the report’s announcement, the US ADP employment in July was also very concerned by the market. This data relates to the increase in the number of non-farm private employment markets, and can also influence the market to estimate the job data.
Today, we can look ahead to European data, including the Bank of England’s mortgage loans, the UK M4 money supply, the Eurozone economic sentiment and consumer confidence index. German consumer price index and US data at night. According to market expectations, the performance of European data is better than last month. It is possible to benefit European currencies before the release of European data in the evening. In the evening, observe the US existing home sales and the Dallas Fed business activity index. The data is much higher than the previous value, or it may increase the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations.
Today’s suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1640/1.1620 support
1.1680/1.1700 resistance
The market is concerned with today’s European data. The data is expected to perform better than the previous one and the euro is supported. But to rise further, these data must be much higher than the previous value. In addition, this week the Federal Reserve Board of Interest and the US job market report, the market is expected to be optimistic, the dollar is supported. Therefore, it is estimated that the euro of 1.17 or above may begin to be under pressure. 1.1745 is also an important resistance for the euro. It is recommended to pay attention to the development of the euro, and also bring exchange rate fluctuations during the period.
GBPUSD
1.3080/1.3065 support
1.3150/1.3165 resistance
The market is concerned about the UK money supply data in the afternoon, as well as the German overnight data. The market expects these figures to perform better than the previous ones, and the euro is supported and is also worth more pounds. But to further break through and rise, these datas must be much higher than the previous value. In addition, this week the Federal Reserve Board of Interest and the US job market report, the market is expected to be optimistic, the dollar is supported. Therefore, it is estimated that the GBP 1.3150 or above may begin to be under pressure. The front resistance of 1.3200 can not be ignored. It is recommended to pay attention to the development of the euro, while affecting the pound, the US economic data, and also the fluctuation of the pound exchange rate during the period.
USDCHF
0.9950/0.9965 resistance
0.9900/0.9885 support
In the afternoon, Switzerland’s economic leading indicators in July are expected to be more bullish for the Swiss franc. However, the overall trend is believed to be based on economic data from the European region. Therefore, other afternoon European data will be the main factor in the main reference to the trend of the US dollar against the Swiss franc. If the European data is better than expected, the euro and the pound will strengthen, and the Swiss franc will have the opportunity to follow.
USD/JPY
110.85/110.70 support
111.30/111.50 resistance
The United States announced that the second quarter GDP initial results also beat market expectations, bullish dollars, but the yen is still flat. Or the market is observing the policy content of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate meeting tomorrow. If the central bank does not intend to tighten the current monetary policy, it will estimate the negative yen.
AUDUSD
0.7375/0.7360 support
0.7420/0.7440 resistance
In the next two days, Australia’s economic indicators are still attention. If it grows, it will increase the Australian dollar in the short term. But before the Fed and US job data is released, it must also pay attention to the bearish the Australian dollar. The recent high of 0.7460 and 0.7480 can be used as an important resistance.
NZDUSD
0.6775/0.6760 support
0.6815/0.6830 resistance
The New Zealand dollar trend is often indirectly affected by the Australian dollar and the renminbi. Of course, changes in the dollar’s movements have a direct impact on the New Zealand dollar. This week’s “Super Week”, the Fed’s interest rate and job data that all impact of the development of the New Zealand dollar.
USD/CAD
1.3045/1.3030 support
1.3095/1.3115 resistance
The US announced that the initial value of GDP in the second quarter showed high growth in the US economy and the US dollar rose against the Canadian dollar. US crude oil price adjustments fell, negative for the Canadian dollar. Technically, the trend of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is on the rise. If the US economic data is strong or the oil price continues to fall, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar will have a chance to rise further, challenging the resistance at the 1.3115.
EUR/GBP
0.8875/0.8860 support
0.8900/0.8920 resistance
After the ECB meeting on interest rates, the euro fell against the pound. Initially, the downward adjustment is completed, and the most important resistance is expected to be 0.8920 or 0.8960.
EURCHF
1.1575/1.1555 support
1.1615/1.1635 resistance
It is expected that the downside target of 1.1575 has been completed and the trend is rising. The short-term euro against the Swiss franc may continue to rebound. Refer to the upper target 1.1615/1.1635 resistance.
XAUUSD
1218/1216 support
1224/1226 resistance
The US announced the initial value of the second quarter GDP shows that the United States still has high growth, bullish dollars, and gold fell. Pay close attention to the performance of the US economic data and the wording or hints of the Fed officials before the interest rate decision. Always, tighten monetary policy and bearish gold.
US crude oil futures:
69.15/69.35 resistance
68.55/68.25 support
Earlier US crude oil inventories decreased, and the results of trade negotiations in North America and Europe and the United States supported oil prices. But remember that many oil-producing countries have indicated that they will consider upgrading their idle capacity and have the opportunity to suppress oil prices. It is recommended to deploy carefully, and the Fed’s monetary policy and US production data also affect crude oil price performance.
BTCUSD:
8235 / 8420 resistance
7745 / 7670 support
Before the US job report and Fed’s monetary decisions, it seems supported the fund injections. But keep look forward to 8420 resistance. If not break the resistance, negative for bitcoin.
The above is for reference only; the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Trading must included risk management! Wish Happy trading!
The above is for reference only; the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Trading must included risk management! Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.