The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Personal opinions today:
Martin Lam, ATFX
Last week, the US announced that the unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in November, but the number of non-farm payrolls fell sharply in November, only 155,000. As early as the day before the announcement of the ADP private employment had already fallen, and the number of weekly jobless claims continued to rise. Therefore, the November job data came out and the market was not surprised. Only the market believes that the Fed has the opportunity to consider stopping interest rate hikes. Next week, the Fed will raise interest rates, or it may announce a stop on the pace of interest rate hikes. It is no longer a statement of “gradual rate hikes.” In addition, the average monthly salary in November was lower than the market expectation of only 0.2%. The number of jobless claims in November continued to climb. It is expected that the US retail sales data will be released this week, which may be further reduced and there is a chance to bear short of the US dollar.
This Wednesday morning in Beijing time will determine the fate of the Brexit and the future of the pound. The latest news indicates that British Prime Minister has deliberately postponed to seek to resolve the final plan of support for members of Congress. In any case, the market is waiting to be seen. At present, the market expects that the proportion of members of the British parliament who oppose the draft of the Brexit is higher, and the trend of the pound is not optimistic. If the final draft is not passed, the pound has a chance to fall. The technical target may be the low of 1.21 to 1.20 at the beginning of 2017 and the 1.25 level in the short term.
Today’s suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1440/1.1460 resistance
1.1380/1.1360 support
The European Central Bank decided to raise interest rates on Thursday. The European Commission said earlier that it began to study the long-term financing bond purchase plan at the end of December, and arranged for a rate hike, interest will help the euro. Moreover, the US job market has slowed down and wages have not increased. The Fed may have a slower rate hike. If the dollar starts to weaken, Euro will have a chance to rebound further. However, it cannot be ignored that the development of the Brexit Agreement affects the performance of the Euro. If the draft of the Brexit vote is not passed on Wednesday morning, it may indirectly drag the euro. Technically, the resistance level in EURUSD, continue to wait for the rebound wave 85%, 1.1440 resistance, and the maximum resistance is the November 20 high 1.1470.
GBPUSD
1.2755/1.2770 resistance
1.2695/1.2675 support
US non farm payroll and wage performance are not as good as market expectations. The Fed’s rate hike may slow down and help support the pound. However, the Brexit agreement may not be approved. It is expected to affect the development of the pound and limit the increase. If the draft of the Brexit draft was not passed on Wednesday morning in Beijing time, it may indirectly drag the pound down. Technically, the pound may continue to maintain its downside, and will support 1.2695 or 1.2675 in the short term. The key resistance area is at 1.2755 or 1.2770.
USDCHF
0.9870/0.9850 support
0.9895/0.9915 resistance
The ECB is planning to end the bond-buying program. Fed officials expressed interest in slowing interest rate hikes, and the US non farm payroll and wage performance did not meet market expectations last Friday, affecting the development of the US dollar and indirectly boosting the Swiss franc. The technically expected 0.9895 has broken through for short-term important support, and the short-term trend is expected to support the rise of the Swiss franc. The dollar’s first target support against the Swiss franc is 0.9870 or 0.9850.
USDJPY
111.85/111.50 support
112.65/112.80 resistance
The number of ADP jobs in the United States and the non-farm payrolls fell respectively. Sino-US trade relations were once again tense and the Dow continued to fall. The investment sentiment in the stock market was affected, and the yen as a safe-haven currency rose, and the dollar fell against the yen. USD/JPY has tried and touched 112.35 support. Looking at other US economic data performances this week, the most important inflation and retail sales data released on Wednesday and Friday are expected to fall. The short-term may affect the dollar’s decline. It is estimated that the USD/JPY will further test the low. If the technology breaks 112.20 or may test 111.85 or 111.50.
It is a kindly recommendation, when trading, you can pay attention to the performance of the US Dow and the Nikkei.
AUDUSD
0.7230/0.7250 resistance
0.7175/0.7160 support
A number of important significant economic data in Australia have been weak recently, and the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates unchanged, which is negative for the Australian dollar. Coupled with the Sino-US trade war continues to affect the market, the Australian dollar has fallen. Even if the US non farm payroll and wage performance were not as good as expected, it failed to boost the Australian dollar. Technically, the AUDUSD double tops were not broken earlier, and now the neckline is broken. Refer to 0.7230 and 0.7250 for short-term important resistance, and look at 0.7160 support.
NZDUSD
0.6895/0.6915 resistance
0.6835/0.6815 support
The decline in the Australian dollar has indirectly affected the decline of the New Zealand dollar.
Coupled with the continued trade wars between China and the United States, the New Zealand economy may be affected by the slowdown of the Chinese economy, and the interest in market investment in the New Zealand dollar is reduced. Although US non farm payroll has disappointed the market, the New Zealand dollar is expected to rebound against the US dollar, but the technical resistance of 0.6895 and 0.6915 may limit the increase of the New Zealand dollar. If the Australian dollar or the China renminbi falls, it is believed that the New Zealand dollar will fall indirectly.
USDCAD
1.3255/1.3240 support
1.3335/1.3355 resistance
Last Friday, the OPEC members and the non-OPEC members agreed to cut production next year, and oil prices rebounded, once rising to $54, boosting the Canadian dollar. However, the non farm payroll and average wages in the United States was weak. The market worried about the demand for crude oil, the oil price rose slowly, and the Canadian dollar’s rise also slowed down. If the oil price does not rise further, it may limit the increase of the Canadian dollar. USDCAD may reaches the support of 1.3255 and 1.3240, and look forward to the resistance of 1.3335 and 1.3355.
EURGBP
0.8950/0.8925 support
0.9000/0.9025 resistance
The British Parliament debated the first phase of the draft Brexit agreement and is expected to vote after the debate ends at 0:00 this Wednesday. At present, there is a large proportion of members who oppose the draft, and the pound is bad. If the draft is not expected to be finalized, it will make the pound perform even weaker. At present, the euro is stronger than the pound, and the euro has a chance to continue to rise against the pound. Technically key resistance is 0.9000 and 0.9025 resistance. In addition, the phonetic euro-dollar performance also helps to capture the development of the euro against the pound.
EURCHF
1.1310/1.1330 resistance
1.1280/1.1260 support
The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday, the central bank may plan to end the bond purchase program, which will help boost the euro. The performance of the euro is more prominent than that of the Swiss franc. It is recommended to pay attention to the important support of the EUR/CHF for 1.1280 and further look at the support level before 1.1260.
XAUUSD
1253/1255 resistance
1245/1243 support
The British parliament debates the Brexit agreement, which may eventually fail. The market is worried that the mood will heat up and assets will flow into the gold market to hedge. Coupled with the weak performance of the US job market, Fed officials said that the pace of interest rate hikes may slow down, which will help boost gold. At present, the market is waiting for the Brexit decision.
It is believed that gold will have a large fluctuation when it is announced at 0:00 on Wednesday.
Short-term technical attention to the resistance of 1253 and 1255 US dollars. It is recommended to pay close attention to the risk of trading.
US crude oil futures
51.75/51.15 support
53.75/54.20 resistance
The OPEC and other non OPEC members agreed to cut production in January next year, which will help support oil prices. They will maintain the target production level and stabilize the oil price, it is expected to test the resistance of 54 US dollars. Technically, the current technical focus continues to focus on resistance at 53.75, with short-term resistance referring to resistance at $53.75 and $54.20.
However, it is necessary to pay attention to other US production data and the amount of crude oil inventories to be announced, and look forward to the development of oil prices.
BTCUSD
3520 / 3750 resistance
3120/ 2985 support
US non farm payroll and average wage compared last month fell, it seems supported bitcoin stables.
However, before the FOMC meeting next week, the market is keep waiting any US inflation data.
Also, the US Fed could raise the interest rate next week. If Interest rate keep hike, the bitcoin still have a chance fall. Technically, the important resistance at US3750, looking forward to lower US3000.
Enjoy and happy trade! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk. Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam, Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
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