The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Martin Lam, ATFX
Personal opinions today:
The European Central Bank decided to end its LTRO at the end of the year, but did not indicate a short-term rate hike schedule. In the absence of interest rate hikes and time, the euro fell against the dollar. In addition, the market expects the Fed will announce a fourth rate hike this year on Thursday. As far as this is concerned, part of the funds flowed to the US dollar on Friday night, European currencies and commodity currencies fell, crude oil prices, gold and silver prices were following the trend.
Today the Eurozone announced the quarterly trade account and the November CPl. The market is expected to fall from last month, and it is estimated that the euro will be negative before the announcement, which indirectly affects the pound and the Swiss franc. Looking ahead, the UK CBI industrial orders, it seems to bearish pound.
At 21:30, attention to the US New York Fed manufacturing index in December, the market is expected to 20.6, down from 23.3 last month. At 22:00, the Canadian existing home sales and the National Economic Confidence Index have an impact on the Canadian dollar and deserve attention.
Today’s suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1335/1.1360 resistance
1.1275/1.1250 support
Last week, the European Central Bank decided to end the LTRO at the end of the year, and will face tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates in the future. After the end of the United States to end the quantitative easing policy, It believes that the future will boost the euro. But we now must attend the changing short-term factors and compare the economic data of the two countries. As like today, the market expects European data, including trade accounts and CPl, to fall from last month and bearish euros. In addition, the Fed’s interest rate on Wednesday night is expected to raise interest rates, and the US dollar may perform stronger.
GBPUSD
1.2605/1.2630 resistance
1.2550/1.2525 support
The Brexit risk crisis cooled and briefly supported the pound. In the face of weak European data expectations, the Fed may raise interest rates on Thursday. Therefore, it is important to keep an eye on the risk of falling pounds.
Technically, short-term attention is paid to the key resistance of 1.2605 and 1.2630. As the risk of Brexit has not been lifted, the pound still has a chance to look at 1.2550 and 1.2525.
USDCHF
0.9995/1.0015 resistance
0.9955/0.9935 support
The market expects that the important economic data released by the Eurozone is weak today, and it is expected to be negative for the Euro. It is expected that the exchange rate of the Euro will fall, and the Swiss franc will be indirectly negative probably. The US dollar against the Swiss franc is likely to test technical resistance, the first target of 0.9995.
USD/JPY
113.60/113.75 resistance
113.25/113.10 support
The market is concerned about the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations and the US dollar is performing strongly. In the short term, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of the US Dow (US30) and indirectly affect the Nikkei Index (JP225). At the same time, the USD/JPY may develop with the relevant stock market. If the stock market declines, the funds return to the yen, and the USD/JPY has a chance to fall. At present, the important resistance of the US dollar against the yen is 114.05, and the important support is 112.80. However, in the short term, you can pay attention to 113.60 resistance and 113.25 support.
AUDUSD
0.7185/0.7200 resistance
0.7155/0.7140 support
The US Fed may raise interest rates during the week, with a bullish dollar. In addition, the Sino-US trade climate involves a diplomatic storm. If the situation does not improve, it will continue to affect the Australian dollar. In addition, the performance of copper prices also indirectly affects the short-term Australian dollar volatility. It is believed that before the Fed’s resolution, the Australian dollar still has a chance to develop downwards, and test 0.7100.
NZDUSD
0.6825/0.6840 resistance
0.6775/0.6760 support
The Sino-US trade war is still tense, involving political factors, affecting the economic outlook of the Asia-Pacific region, and indirectly negative the New Zealand dollar. If the Australian dollar or the China renminbi rises, it is believed that it can indirectly benefit the NZD. Conversely, it must first pay attention to the support levels of 0.6775 and 0.6760. If you lose 0.6760, the trend will be further negative.
USD/CAD
1.3400/1.3420 resistance
1.3345/1.3325 support
Tonight, Canada announced the existing home sales and national economic confidence index, which deserves attention. In addition, the trend of oil prices indirectly affects the performance of the Canadian dollar. Before the market waits for the Fed to raise interest rates, it may limit the Canadian dollar’s gains, while the US dollar against the Canadian dollar can develop to the 1.3400 area.
EUR/GBP
0.9020/0.9040 resistance
0.8980/0.8965 support
The risk of Brexit was suspended, the performance of the pound was strong, and the euro fell against the pound. The short-term market mainly waits for the Fed’s resolution, and the euro is similar to the pound. Therefore, the euro is expected to fluctuate against the pound range. If the technical support falls below 0.8955, the trend may fall further. Focus on 0.9020 and 0.9040 resistance in the short term.
EURCHF
1.1310/1.1335 resistance
1.1275/1.1250 support
The European Central Bank plans to end its LTRO program at the end of the year, which is stronger than the Swiss franc. Because the SNB does not have any tendency to change its monetary policy, the Swiss franc is weaker and the euro has a chance to further test resistance against the Swiss franc. Technically concerned about the resistance of 1.3310 and 1.1335.
XAUUSD
1240/1243 resistance
1234/1231 support
British politics and Brexit risk have been suspended, market risk aversion has cooled, investment risks have fallen, and gold has adjusted downward. In addition, the market estimates that the Fed’s interest rate hike is also a bearish gold. Technically, short-term gold has entered the adjustment, and the Federal Reserve will announce the future monetary policy stance before it can grasp the trend of gold. The key support is currently expected to be 1231, with a resistance of 1243.
US crude oil futures:
52.65/53.00 resistance
51.25/50.85 support
The market waits for the Fed’s monetary policy resolution to affect oil price volatility. Technically, it still pays attention to the short-term important resistance range of $53. Due to the trade war and the interest rate trend of the global interest rate, it is estimated that the oil price is lower than the $54 opportunity, while the next opportunity is higher than the $51.
BTCUSD:
3520 / 3750 resistance
3120/ 2985 support
As mentioned two weeks ago, the US Fed could raise the interest rate, since the market expected, the bitcoin still have a chance to fall. Technically, the first important resistance at US3520, looking forward to lower US3120 and US2985.
Enjoy and happy trade! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk. Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam, Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is: the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.