The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Personal opinions today:
Martin Lam, ATFX
Over the weekend, the G20 leaders’ high-level talks between China and the United States have initially improved relations, eased trade tensions between China and the United States, and temporarily improved the investment climate. The US Dow futures rose well and made the Asia-Pacific stock market better. Japan’s Nikkei index, China’s A50 gap opened higher. The Hong Kong stock market continues to rise. However, it must be noted that at present, China and the United States only agree to extend the trade truce for 90 days, but only bring dawn to the trade atmosphere. Many Chinese producers and import and export traders, they are still full of hidden concerns and challenges in future, and there are still uncertainties in investment prospects. All the risks may affect the future performance of the Asia Pacific region. That why the market is not all go well now.
This week’s many important news lead the market sentiments and investment risks. Among them, the market is more concerned about the future of the British Parliament to debate the draft of the Brexit agreement, followed by the Beige Book of the US Regional Economic Report. Later this week, there was a US job report that was most concerned about the market, which will guide the US Federal Reserve‘s interest rate decision next week.
Today’s data attention includes:
In the afternoon, the market focused on France, Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the November manufacturing PMl (Purchasing Managers Index) in the UK and other regions. In the evening, Canada and the United States also announced the manufacturing PMI in November. The strength of the data is strong and directly affects the trend of the relevant currencies.
Today’s suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1355/1.1375 resistance
1.1295/1.1270 support
The G20 meeting brought a temporary easing of global investment climate, but problems in the European region failed to boost the euro. In addition, the UK Parliament will begin to debate the draft of the Brexit agreement tomorrow, and there is a risk that it will affect the performance of the euro in the short term and even the euro. In the event of a downtrend, the euro may point to the development of the 1.1295 and 1.1270 support.
GBPUSD
1.2805/1.2855 resistance
1.2720/1.2655 support
The draft Brexit agreement will be debated in the British Parliament tomorrow, at midnight on December 12th, Beijing time. At present, the draft agreement has been opposed by the National Assembly, and it is negative for the British pound. The US dollar could continued to decline.
Technically, GBP may break below the support level of 1.2720 and may look down to 1.2655. If there is any solution during the debate to increase the chances of passing the draft, the US dollar can rebound strongly, but the resistance of 1.29 is still very important.
USDCHF
0.9975/0.9950 support
1.0005/1.0035 resistance
The market currently believes that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% on December 19, and the US dollar will be against the Swiss franc. In addition, the issue of European politics and Brexit needs to be resolved. If it cannot be changed in the short term, the US dollar seems to test the 1.0 against the Swiss franc.
USD/JPY
113.50/113.35 support
113.95/114.15 resistance
Sino-US trade temporarily ceases to fire. The US Dow performance continues to do well, driving Asian stock markets to rise, and the USD/JPY may push up to 114 levels. Coupled with the Fed’s rate hike expectations, the yen has downside risks. Technically, the short-term USD/JPY trend is pointing to the 114 level. Of course, if the global stock market declines, the dollar will have a chance to fall against the yen.
AUDUSD
0.7365/0.7380 resistance
0.7325/0.7300 support
Despite the strong performance of the Australian dollar, the performance of the Australian manufacturing and inflation index fell from last month. Afterwards, a number of Australian economic data were weaker than last month, which was a total negative for the Australian dollar.
Technically it may point to 0.7300 support.
NZDUSD
0.6910/0.6925 resistance
0.6860/0.6845 support
At the G20 meeting, countries strengthened cooperation. The temporary ceasefire between China and the United States brought about market turmoil and boosted the New Zealand dollar. However, many important US economic indicators announcements in the this week which could affected the interest rates forecast . It is estimated that the New Zealand dollar will adjust or downward risk.
Technically, short-term attention the NZDUSD at 0.6845 support.
USD/CAD
1.3285/1.3305 resistance
1.3235/1.3225 support
Since Sino-US trade relations eased, the OPEC discussed capacity reductions on Thursday and oil prices rebounded, bringing the Canadian dollar up. However, whether oil prices will continue to rise and break through the resistance of $54, there is still uncertainty. It is recommended to pay close attention to oil price performance and how to drive the development of the Canadian dollar.
EUR/GBP
0.8880/0.8860 support
0.8930/0.8945 resistance
The UK Parliament will debate the draft of the Brexit agreement tomorrow, and finally vote on the December 12th UK Parliament. Before the current debate in Congress, the market worried that the draft could not pass, and the pound was weaker. Compared with the euro, the euro is stronger than the pound, and the euro has a chance to rise against the pound. The technical key support is 0.8860, which is worthy of attention.
EURCHF
1.1305/1.1295 support
1.1335/1.1350 resistance
In the afternoon, the economic comparison between Switzerland and the euro zone, if the euro zone data beat market expectations, the euro rose, which may cause the EURCHF fall. It is recommended to note whether the euro against the Swiss franc is likely to break through the above support or resistance, that will go further.
XAUUSD
1226/1228 resistance
1217/1215 support
At the G20 meeting, Sino-US trade relations have improved, some safe-haven funds may flow out of gold, and gold prices have a downside. In addition, the United States released a number of important economic data in this week, including non farm payroll and other job data. It maybe affected the market mentality and bearish gold.
US crude oil futures:
54.05/54.45 resistance
51.70/51.20 support
Earlier, the OPEC agreed to cut production, but Saudi oil increased output, causing crude oil inventories to rise and oil prices to fall. The current G20 meeting brings good news of economic cooperation and oil prices have risen. On Thursday, the OPEC officially held a meeting. If it agreed to joint production cuts, it is expected to support the crude oil price to rise step by step. At present, it is only concerned about whether the resistance of $54 can be broken.
BTCUSD:
4230 / 4350 resistance
3820/ 3575 support
Last week, with the dovish speech of the US’s Fed Chairman, the bitcoin seems pause to fall, the price still maintain US3830 above. However, the US inflation data looks still good and the US Fed could raise the interest rate in this month. Interest rate keep hike, the bitcoin still have a chance fall.
Technically, US4380 and 4550 are the important resistance. Probably the price hard to breakthrough in this moment.
Enjoy and happy trade! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk. Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam, Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is: the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.