The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Personal opinions today:
Martin Lam, ATFX
The seventh round of the China-US high-level official trade talks that just ended on Sunday, the entire meeting is progressing smoothly. US President Trump said that he is satisfied with the progress of the two sides and resolves some questions. The US president is willing to extend the tariff-raising plan for China to ease market tensions. The global stock market is expected to rise further, but safe-haven funds will likely flow out of safe-haven commodities and currencies, and gold prices and the yen have a chance to fall.
Benefiting from the progress of China-US trade talks success , the offshore China RMB has risen. Australia and New Zealand, which are trading partners with China country, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar against USD rebounded this morning. At the same time, the price of crude oil was up, and the Canadian dollar fell to 1.31 against the USD dollar.
In terms of fundamentals, the market is watching the performance of US economic data this week. On Thursday, the United States announced the fourth quarter GDP and the number of initial claims. In addition, the Eurozone economy and inflation data are worthy of attention. In addition to the data, this week the British Parliament voted for next Brexit draft. If the Brexit draft is rejected again and there is no plan to extend the Brexit deadline of March 29, the British pound’s trend will likely fall and affect other European currencies. But the other side of gold and the yen will likely benefit from rising.
Today’s suggestion:
1.1360/1.1375 resistance
1.1315/1.1300 support
Today, the Eurozone only has the Spanish Production Price Index and the US Wholesale Sales and the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index as reference tonight . In addition, the market outlook is positive for the inflation data released by the Eurozone, which is believed to support the euro rise. Technically, the euro still has a chance to test resistance at 1.1360 or 1.1375 against the dollar. Conversely, if the 1.1315 and 1.1300 support levels fall below, the euro has a chance to test 1.1270 or 1.1250.
GBPUSD
1.3080/1.3095 resistance
1.3015/1.2995 support
This week, the British Parliament voted again for a new draft of the Brexit, but the market is estimated to be rejected by members of Congress again, which is bad for the pound. Also due to the close of the Brexit dead line, rating agencies have indicated that they will lower the UK credit rating. If the Brexit deadline cannot be extended, it is believed that the trend of the pound may weaken at any time under the influence of several uncertainties. If bad news seriously affects the UK’s successful Brexit process, the pound will have a chance to return to the 1.28 level. The current important resistance can be referenced to the rebound wave of 73.6%, 1.3095.
USDCHF
0.9980/0.9965 support
1.0035/1.0050 resistance
The Swiss franc followed the upward trend of the euro and fell to between 1.00. The current Brexit risk exists and affects the European currency, noting that the Swiss franc is weak. Technically, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is expected to continue to test the support of 0.9980/0.9965, but must pay attention to the performance of the euro. If the US dollar weakens against the Swiss franc, it is possible to test resistance at 1.0035 and 1.0050.
USDJPY
110.85/111.00 resistance
110.50/110.35 support
Progress in the China-US Trade talks conference success, it may lead to an increase in the investment climate. The US Dow and the Japanese stock market Nikkei are expected to move up further, and the dollar-yen fall is limited. It is estimated that the USD/JPY will have the opportunity to test 110.85. After the breakthrough, it is expected to continue to test the 111 level. Technically, USD/JPY is short-term focus on 110.50 important support.
AUDUSD
0.7165/0.7180 resistance
0.7130/0.7115 support
The market expects progress in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the price of copper and aluminum rose, boosting the Australian dollar. The progress of the next round of Sino-US trade negotiations is very important, and at the same time, refer to the price performance of offshore RMB and the performance of the copper and aluminum as a reference for the Australian dollar against the US dollar.
NZDUSD
0.6895/0.6915 resistance
0.6860/0.6840 support
New Zealand announced this morning that retail sales growth was strong in the fourth quarter, and the Sino-US trade talks over the past weekend made progress and boosted the New Zealand dollar. However, the New Zealand dollar still has no breakthrough in 0.6900 and 0.6915, have been pay attention to the risk of the callback. Technically, it is recommended to pay close attention to the progress of the next round of Sino-US trade negotiations. And refer to the price performance of offshore China renminbi as a reference for the trend of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar.
USDCAD
1.3155/1.3170 resistance
1.3095/1.3080 support
The Canadian dollar benefited from the progress of Sino-US trade talks, which led to the rise in crude oil prices. The US dollar was adjusted back to 1.31 against the Canadian dollar, and is supporting 1.3095 and 1.3080. Technically, after recommending the outcome of the China-US Trade Consultation Conference, while maintaining attention to the performance and development of crude oil prices, it may be important than the economic data released by Canada.
EURGBP
0.8710/0.8725 resistance
0.8670/0.8650 support
The Brexit risk and rating agency may lower the UK rating, and at the same time be tested the British pound, beware of the pound’s decline, thus raising the euro against the pound.
Technically, the euro is expected to be supported at 0.86 against the pound, with resistance at 0.8725. The main concern is the results of the British Brexit vote this week after the British Prime Minister and the European Commission have discussed the results. And pay attention to the Brexit deadline, will be extended, boost the pound, so that the euro against the pound fell to 0.86 side.
EURCHF
1.1370/1.1390 resistance
1.1330/1.1315 support
Recently, the euro has fluctuated within the range of the Swiss franc. Technically, if the EUR/CHF stays above 1.1330 and 1.1315, the EUR/CHF has the opportunity to test the resistance at 1.1370 and higher. Looking at the Eurozone economic data this week, the data may affect the euro and affect the euro against the Swiss franc.
XAUUSD
1331/1333 resistance
1323/1321 support
The China-US Trade Conference has made progress and this week is watching the US-DPRK summit on Wednesday and Thursday. These are the things that bear the price trend of gold, and note that the price of gold may fall. Since the price of gold fell below 1333 last week, it is now estimated to be an important resistance. If the US-DPRK meeting did not change the denuclearization results and the US economic data slowed down, the gold price low 1321 became one of the important support positions, and it is possible to regain or break the 1333 resistance level.
US crude oil futures
57.50/57.85 resistance
56.65/56.05 support
The results of the Sino-US trade negotiations and the Fed’s easing of monetary policy have boosted crude oil prices. And the OPEC oil group is expected to continue to cut production next month, and these factors support the price of crude oil. However, technical attention must be paid to adjusting the risk. If the price of crude oil falls below $56, the trend may continue downward.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
26160/26245 resistance
26030/25860 support
Sino-US trade negotiations have made progress, the US president has extended the deadline to increase import tariffs, and the market is looking forward to the next round of Sino-US trade negotiations. In addition, the Fed meeting minutes remain, no interest rate hike in short term. It will help boost the investment climate and hope to support the stock market. It is only necessary to pay attention to fluctuations and adjustments, to avoid over-trading and cause losses.
BTCUSD
3580 / 3380 support
3950 / 4100 resistance
US Federal minutes shown that the US economy still under performance, it seems not necessary to raise interest rates during the year, the market expected the Fed is considering to stop interest rate hikes this year. It could be increasing the cryptocurrency market demand and now the dollar depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin. If the first resistance at US3750 breakthrough again, then the next target will be 3950 and next is 4100.
Enjoy and happy trade! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk. Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam, Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is: the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.