The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Personal opinions today:
Martin Lam, ATFX
The British Parliament passed a partial revision of the draft Brexit new agreement, but the Irish border guarantee program has not yet been passed. The overall draft of the Brexit remains unresolved and the British pound fell. The next focus of the market is the FOMC interest rate decision. The result will be announced at 3 am on the 31st, Beijing time. Then the Fed will hold a press conference. The market will wait for the Fed’s monetary policy orientation and look for interest rates. Under this circumstance, the US dollar index temporarily stay above 95.6. Gold prices and crude oil prices generally benefited from the prospects and pace of interest rate hikes by the Fed. Except for the pound, most of the major currencies have generally risen against the dollar.
In Asian time, after the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting tomorrow morning, the market will look at Friday’s important data, the US none-farm payroll and average wage for January. The market expects the end of the US consumer season, during which the US government sector is partially shut down, and the weather in the United States is affected by the blizzard. It is expected that the US job market will fall sharply in January, which is negative for the US dollar. If technical analysis is used to assess the US dollar adjustment wave, the callback is 61.8% to 95.6 before the US non-farm payrolls data is released. The next level of important support is 95.0. If the trend continues to go down further, most of the major currencies against the US dollar and gold prices will generally be supported.
Today’s suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1480/1.1505 resistance
1.1405/1.1380 support
The market focus is on the FOMC interest rate decision and the US January job market report, especially the non-farm payroll and average wage data. At present, the overall data is expected to be negative for the US dollar, resulting in a bullish euro. Technically, it will looking to the resistance of 1.1480 and 1.1505. The support levels are 1.1405 and 1.1380 respectively. As the FOMC interest rate decision may be worse than the market tomorrow morning, please pay attention to position risk management when investing.
GBPUSD
1.3205/1.3230 resistance
1.3055/1.3025 support
The British Parliament voted on the draft of the new Brexit agreement, the issue of the Irish border remains unresolved, the Congress vetoed the draft, the pound fell below 1.3095 important support, technically bearish pounds. But the next focus of the market is the Fed’s interest rate and the US January job data report, especially the non-farm payroll and average wage data. The current overall data is expected to be bearish for the dollar, which is estimated to boost the pound. As the FOMC interest rate decision may be worse than the market tomorrow morning, please pay attention to position risk management when investing.
USDCHF
0.9940/0.9960 resistance
0.9900/0.9880 support
The Swiss franc continued to consolidate within 0.99, and the pound fell, indirectly affecting the performance of the Swiss franc, but technically it is expected that the dollar will continue to develop within 0.99 against the Swiss franc. The next focus of the market is the FOMC interest rate decision and the US January job data report, especially the non-farm payroll and average wage data. The current overall data is expected to be negative for the US dollar, which is estimated to boost the Swiss franc. As the FOMC interest rate decision may be worse than the market tomorrow morning, please pay attention to position risk management when investing.
USD/JPY
109.45/109.60 resistance
109.05/108.85 support
Before the FOMC interest rate decision, the market expects the interest rate and monetary policy to remain unchanged, and may announce a delay on the rate hike, causing the dollar to fall and the dollar to fall against the yen. In addition, the US Dow’s uptrend performance began to weaken, dragging Japan’s Nikkei index to fall after the opening this morning, and further negative the dollar against the yen. It is recommended to pay close attention to changes in global stock markets, especially the US Dow futures. The current overall data is expected to be negative for the dollar, which is estimated to boost the yen. As the Fed’s interest rate decision may be worse than the market tomorrow morning, please pay attention to position risk management when investing.
AUDUSD
0.7190/0.7215 resistance
0.7145/0.7130 support
This morning, Australia consumer confidence index up, which is positive for the Australian dollar. In addition, the price of copper and industrial metals rebounded and the Australian dollar benefited. At present, the market pays close attention to the FOMC interest rate decision and monetary policy orientation and the upcoming Sino-US trade negotiations. It is estimated that the Australian dollar still has a chance to go up. The short-term proposal carefully observes the trend of industrial metals prices and Sino-US relations and situation, while the latter is most concerned by the market and affects the trend of the Australian dollar. As the FOMC interest rate decision may be worse than the market tomorrow, please pay attention to position risk management when investing.
NZDUSD
0.6840/0.6855 resistance
0.6805/0.6785 support
The market is watching the Sino-US trade negotiations and the FOMC monetary policy decision, and the fundamentals are positive the NZD. Technically, the current focus is on 0.6805 support for the New Zealand dollar adjustment wave. As the FOMC interest rate decision may be worse than the market tomorrow morning, please pay attention to position risk management when investing.
USD/CAD
1.3285/1.3310 resistance
1.3235/1.3215 support
Technically, if the dollar breaks the resistance of 1.3285 or 1.3310 against the Canadian dollar, the technical Canadian dollar may weaken. As the FOMC interest rate decision may be worse than the market tomorrow morning, please pay attention to position risk management when investing.
EUR/GBP
0.8765/0.8790 resistance
0.8720/0.8675 support
The Brexit was once again rejected, affecting the pound’s decline. In the recent analysis, if the euro stabilizes and its upward trend, the pound will adjust. the EURGBP is expected to rebound. At present, the FOMC interest rate decision may be different from the market, there may be a gap in the market. Please pay attention to position risk management when
investing.
EURCHF
1.1385/1.1400 resistance
1.1360/1.1345 support
The euro rose against the dollar, and the dollar traded in a narrow range against the Swiss franc. The euro continued to rise against the Swiss franc and broke the resistance at 1.1350.
It is expected that the euro will continue to rise against the US dollar, and the euro against the Swiss franc may test the next level of important resistance at 1.1385. The FOMC interest rate decision may be different from the market tomorrow morning. Please pay attention to position risk management when investing.
XAUUSD
1315/1318 resistance
1311/1308 support
The market is waiting for the FOMC interest rate decision and monetary policy, expected policy and interestlevels remain unchanged. The market generally believes that the FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged and may delay the pace of interest rate hikes to boost gold prices. If the FOMC does not abandon the tightening of monetary policy, the price of gold may fall. Please note that the Fed policy meeting may have a possible gap with the market, please pay attention to position risk management.
US crude oil futures
53.90/54.30 resistance
52.50/52.05 support
Before the FOMC interest rate decision, the price increase of crude oil was limited. There is still no breakthrough in technical resistance at 53.90 and 54.30, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the adjustment of crude oil prices to 52 to 51 US dollars. If the FOMC does not give up the tightening of monetary policy, the price of crude oil may fall. Please be aware
that the Fed policy meeting statement that may have a possible gap with the market, please pay attention to position risk management when investing.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
24770/24865 resistance
24270/24150 support
At present, the second round of negotiations between China and the United States is about to begin, reflected in market expectation. The only one watching the US larger companies announce their quarterly results, it may be fluctuation in the stock market, and it is recommended to be careful about trading. Tonight, a lot of US larger companies announced their quarterly results. In addition, the market is watching the FOMC interest rate decision.
The Dow has fluctuations and uncertainties, and pay attention to risks.
BTCUSD
3280 / 3100 support
3750 / 3950 resistance
FOMC monetary policy decisions on coming. The market expected the Fed monetary policy will remain unchanged, which will be positive the cryptocurrencies market. However, the the crypto market now is not reflected. The market and investors may be waiting the FOMC statement and looking for the long term trend in interest rate direction. Technically, the bitcoin price testing the support. If the crypto currencies demand increased which support the price of bitcoin rebound, the first target maybe set at US3750.
Enjoy trading!
Enjoy and happy trade! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk. Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam, Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
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