The following article was written by ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific, Martin Lam.
Personal opinions today:
On Thursday, the British House of Commons voted again on the British Prime Minister to submit a new Brexit amendment. If it is rejected again, the Prime Minister must extend the deadline for the European Union to leave the European Union on March 29. Earlier, the EU said that if EU member states accept the UK’s request to postpone the deadline, the deadline can be delayed until June 30.
Market risk sentiment cooled, and global stock markets made good. The general international gold and silver prices, as well as the yen, have fallen. However, this week, the FOMC held a meeting on interest rates decision on Wednesday afternoon in the US local time, on Thursday morning Asia time . The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, but whether monetary policy will be changed from a prudent assessment of interest rate hikes to stop raising interest rates or considering interest rate cuts will be of great significance to the market and investment. Before the market waits for the Fed to announce the content of the monetary policy meeting, the market estimates that the Fed does not intend to tighten monetary policy, the dollar trend has a weaker chance, may be more bullish against the dollar’s major currency and international gold prices, and indirectly support the silver price and crude oil price .
On Thursday morning, the British House of Commons will vote the Brexit for the third time in the House of Commons. The announcement time may be similar to the announcement of the Fed’s interest rate decision. On Thursday night, the Bank of England announced the interest rate and monetary policy. Investors are advised to remain cautious on Wednesday and focus on market volatility.
Today’s suggestion:
1.1335/1.1350 resistance
1.1300/1.1285 support
The euro zone announced the January trade account today. The market expects no surprises, similar to the previous figures. Moreover, if the results of the data are not significantly different, the impact on the currency is low. The market may be more concerned about the outcome of the Eurozone economic sentiment index and UK job data tomorrow. Technically, the short-term euro has a downward adjustment opportunity, but it is estimated that the Fed’s monetary policy orientation has limited space for the euro to fall. It is recommended to focus on the initial target of 1.1300 or 1.1285 support.
GBPUSD
1.3335/1.3360 resistance
1.3240/1.3210 support
The risk of hard Brexit in the UK temporarily decreased, and the pound rebounded. The market is waiting the British Prime Minister submit the new Brexit bill again, and apply to the EU for the extension of the Brexit time. It is expected that there will be uncertainties in the investor’s mind and will have a negative impact on the pound at any time. Tomorrow, the UK announced job data and the Bank of England’s interest rate on Thursday, and these factors may fluctuate for the pound. Technically, refer to 1.3210 important support, 1.3360 important resistance. If it falls below the support, it will probably test 1.3150. In the face of the risk of Brexit in the UK, it is estimated that the resistance of 1.3360 is very important.
USDCHF
1.0050/1.0075 resistance
1.0010/0.9985 support
The dollar is weak, the euro is rising, and the Swiss franc is supported. Technically, the US dollar against the Swiss franc reached 1.0025 support, and may temporarily test the 1.0010 or 0.9985 support level. In terms of technical trends, the Swiss franc is expected to remain strong, but it is recommended to keep abreast of the Brexit news, pay attention to the pound and euro fluctuations, believe that the trend of the pound and the euro will indirectly affect the Swiss franc.
USDJPY
111.70/111.85 resistance
111.45/111.30 support
The UK will leave the European Union on March 29 and is expected to temporarily ease its market risk. The Sino-US trade agreement is expected to make progress, which will help the Dow and the Nikkei index rise respectively, and is expected to lead the dollar to rise against the yen. The Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and the statement of the Bank of Japan’s governor’s speech, Japan’s monetary policy and economic outlook remained stable, the target 2% inflation has not yet been reached, the loose monetary policy can continue to be extended, and the yen’s trend is difficult to strengthen. It is currently expected to look at the narrow range of the USD/JPY and wait for a breakthrough.
AUDUSD
0.7095/0.7115 resistance
0.7060/0.7045 support
Inflation in the United States was moderate, and the US dollar was postponed, with a bullish Australian dollar. The Sino-US trade agreement continues to be discussed and progress has been good. Technically, the Australian dollar once again tested 0.7090. However, if the test fails again, the Australian dollar may be adjusted against the US dollar. Currently, you can refer to 0.7060 and 0.7045 support. If the breakout is possible, there will be a deep adjustment.
NZDUSD
0.6855/0.6870 resistance
0.6810/0.6790 support
The trend of the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are similar. The Australian dollar’s rising momentum is lacking. At the same time, the resistance of the New Zealand dollar has not been successful. After failing to test 0.6860 again, it is estimated that the market may not be able to go upstream. If the dollar regains its strength at the beginning of the week, it will likely bearish the New Zealand dollar. Technically, reference can be made to 0.6810 and 0.6790 support.
USDCAD
1.3365/1.3385 resistance
1.3310/1.3290 support
The OPEC announced that it will maintain a production cut plan this year. On the Russian side, it also intends to extend the production reduction plan and announce the decision later. These messages support the rise in crude oil prices and indirectly benefit the Canadian dollar. Technically, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar can remain below 1.3365 in the adjustment wave, and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is still expected to continue to fall. If the price of crude oil further rises, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar may test 1.3290 or 1.3275 support.
EURGBP
0.8510/0.8475 support
0.8570/0.8600 resistance
The British parliament vetoed the Brexit without agreement and extended the Brexit deadline. The pound strengthened and the euro down against the pound. At present, the technology is not changed. It is recommended to keep an eye on the news of Brexit and to dominate the trend in the pound, which will affect the fluctuation of the EURGBP. When investing in the EURGBP, must pay attention to large fluctuations. Technically, it is temporarily estimated that the EURGBP has a chance to consolidate at 0.8510 or 0.8475, and the market outlook is expected to test 0.8600 resistance.
EURCHF
1.1335/1.1310 support
1.1380/1.1395 resistance
The Brexit incident has temporarily subsided, and this week the British Prime Minister submitted a new plan and the EU will extend the Brexit deadline. The EURCHF is currently at a normal level and fluctuates in a narrow range. Technically, reference can be made to 1.1335 or 1.1310 to support internal consolidation.
XAUUSD
1303/1306 resistance
1296/1293 support
The Brexit incident has temporarily subsided, and this week the British Prime Minister submitted a new plan and the EU will extend the Brexit deadline. Now that the UK has avoided the risk of hard Brexit, XAU are expected to fall. However, on Thursday, the FOMC meeting, the market estimated that the Fed will continue to loose monetary policy, which may stimulate the price of gold, can refer to the resistance of 1303 and 1306. If XAU break the resistance, it can refer to the resistance of 1310. At present, if the XAU trend is technically adjusted, the support level can refer to 1296 and 1293.
US crude oil futures
58.75/59.20 resistance
58.15/57.75 support
Last week, the US API and EIA crude oil inventories fell sharply. The OPEC’s countries agreed to reduction plan and have already implemented it, which is the reason for the rise in crude oil prices. The market is watching the API and EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday. The short-term may hinder the rise in crude oil prices. Technically, if the price adjustment, focus on $58.15 and $57.75 support, if the support is broken, look forward to the important support level at $56.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
25920/26085 resistance
25680/25455 support
US economic data is expected to grow, driving inflation, improving investment sentiment and boosting stock market performance. In addition, FOMC meeting this Thursday, the market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, but also hope to bullish the US Dow. Of course, if the market concerned about the uncertainty of the Brexit in or the Sino-US trade deal, the risk sentiment will heat up and affect the performance of the Dow.
BTCUSD
3780 / 3680 support
4050 / 4125 resistance
The US inflation data shown moderated, FOMC meeting coming this Thursday morning, the dollar fell that pushed up the price of bitcoin. The bitcoin keep supported between US3780 and US3680. Probably, US4050 and US 4125 will limited the price of bitcoin, maybe the price reversed after the FOMC meeting this week.
Enjoy and happy trade! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk. Wish Happy trading!
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam, Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: [email protected] or wechat: ATFX_China
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