The Fifteenth Monex Global Retail Survey was conducted late November to December 1st 2014, with Japanese electronic trading giant MONEX Group having published the full result today.
The forecast DI (diffusion index)** for world stock markets for the coming three months rose from the previous survey (September 2014) in all regions, which suggests that retail investors remain optimistic.
MONEX Group asked U.S. and Chinese (Hong Kong) retail investors which currencies will rise most sharply for the coming three months. Around 80% of U.S. respondents (60% in the previous survey) and around 60% of Hong Kong respondents (40% in the previous survey) chose the U.S. dollar, showing that the percentage of respondents choosing the U.S. dollar was up significantly in the two regions.
Additionally, the company asked Japanese investors about their forecast for the dollar-yen exchange rate for the coming three months. The percentage of retail investors forecasting a stronger dollar and a weaker yen declined 2 percentage points (from 70% to 68%) from the previous survey (November 2014). In contrast, the percentage of retail investors forecasting a stronger yen rose 1 percentage point (from 13% to 14%).
A question about the most promising region for the coming three months revealed that retail investors’ expectations for U.S. stocks remained flat or increased from the previous survey in all regions. Whilst MONEX is a mainstay of the Japanese FX and electronic trading industry, the company also has interests in North America, in the form of TradeStation and IBFX, both of which are wholly owned subsidiaries of MONEX Group, rendering the US market of great importance to the company.
On this basis, the Retail Survey includes expectations for the US market. MONEX Group’s findings conclude that in accordance with the previous survey (September 2014), Japanese retail investors had the highest expectations for the United States. U.S. retail investors’ expectations for the United States were at a slightly lower point than the previous survey but still remained high, suggesting their high expectations for stock price hike in the United States.
MONEX Group asked retail investors in the US, Japan, and Hong Kong area has the best equity performance for the coming three months.
As in the previous survey (September 2014), Japanese retail investors have the highest expectations for the United States. U.S. retail investors’ expectations for the United States were at a slightly lower point than the previous survey but still remained high, suggesting their high expectations for stock prices in the United States.
Hong Kong retail investors continued to have strong expectations for the U.S. and Asia excluding Japan, but their expectations were not much different from those for U.S. stocks.
The full survey and results can be viewed here.